Mel's Blog

August 20th, 2008 11:00 AM

Wednesday's bond market has opened up slightly despite stock gains and a lack of economic news on the day's agenda. The stock markets are showing solid gains after earlier weakness this week. The Dow is currently up 37 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 1 15/32,  we will likely see price improvements this afternoon with mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The bond market will likely be influenced by stock swings, if we are to see any afternoon changes to mortgage rates today. Stocks of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have come under fire again and have posted considerable losses this week as investors become more concerned about their stability and the housing market. This could influence mortgage rates also if the fears continue to rise and should be kept on our radar.

Early tomorrow morning, the Labor Department will post last week's new unemployment claims numbers. They are expected to fall by 12,000 claims from the previous week to 438,000 new claims. A larger than expected number of claims would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, this is not one of the more important reports we see each week. Therefore, unless the number varies greatly from forecasts its impact on rates will probably be minimal.

The Conference Board will give us the last piece of monthly data for the week late tomorrow morning when it releases its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. A higher than expected reading is bad news for the bond market because it indicates that the economy may be strengthening. However, a weaker than expected reading means that the economy may slow in the near future, making stocks less appealing to investors. This also eases inflation concerns in the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow if the stock markets remain calm. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.3% in the index.

 

                        Mel

 


Posted by Mel Samick on August 20th, 2008 11:00 AMPost a Comment (0)

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